Showing posts with label Michael Mann. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Mann. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Interests, Ideology And the Climate Denial Machine


Interests, Ideology And the Climate Denial Machine
Michael Mann 06/09/2014 huffingtonpost.com

Paul Krugman has an interesting op-ed in yesterday's New York Times entitled "Interests, Ideology & Climate." In this commentary, Krugman argues that the current campaign to deny climate change is steeped more in political ideology than in industry-funded opposition.

I'm a big fan of Krugman's work, and he makes a number of very good points in this latest commentary. I agree with him that the current campaign to deny the reality and threat of climate change does indeed feed off a very large, ideologically-driven partisan divide that is grounded in anti-regulatory beliefs and libertarian principles.

But I take issue with Krugman's argument that the massive funding of climate change denial by monied interests like the Koch Brothers doesn't play an equal role. The fallacy in Krugman's thesis, in my view, is that the ideological divide that exists with regard to climate change is somehow independent of the massively-funded disinformation campaign. It isn't.

The Kochs, Scaifes & others have used their billions to construct a vast "Potemkin Village" (in the words of science historian Naomi Oreskes) of denialism, by funding groups like "Americans For Prosperity", the "Heartland Institute", the "Competitive Enterprise Institute" and a whole cadre of other front groups, organizations, and hired guns implicated in the campaign to discredit climate science and climate scientists. I should know since, as I describe in my book The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars, I found myself at the center of that campaign more than a decade ago because of my scientific work establishing the unprecedented nature of recent global warming.

This network of front groups, organizations, and paid advocates is sometimes referred to as the "Climate Denial Machine" or just "CDM" (though, to be precise, they aren't denying "climate" per se, but rather, the overwhelming scientific consensus that the climate is changing, and that we're the cause).

The CDM has, in my view, played a far more critical role than Krugman's piece might seem to imply. It is this well-organized and well-funded apparatus that supports and nurtures the larger conservative echo chamber of climate change denialism. A favored mode of attack by the CDM involves firing up the conservative "base" through dog whistles and red meat-loaded attacks on climate scientists via conservative media outlets. These attacks frequently seek to create the notion that climate scientists are part of an evil cabal seeking to take away your freedom in support of creating a socialist world government. The "one world government" conspiracy theory is a staple of the Koch & Scaife-funded attack machine.

The partisan divide on climate change didn't arise in a vacuum. Despite the substantial differences in political ideology between affiliates of the two major parties that existed during the Clinton years, there was relatively little difference in their level of acceptance of the science of climate change. But the schism has increased steadily over time ever since as the funding and extent of the CDM disinformation campaign has ramped up.

The fact that there is such strong ideological opposition now among self-identified conservatives to acting on climate change is a direct result of this massively funded and well-organized disinformation campaign. So, yes, the current opposition on the right to acting on climate change is largely ideologically-driven. But that ideological divide was created and continues to be nurtured by a very deliberate disinformation campaign, funded by the Koch Brothers and other conservative interests who are arguably driven as much by financial self-interest (think Koch & Keystone) as by ideology. To argue otherwise is, with all due respect, to let these bad faith actors off the hook.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Audio: Climatologist Michael Mann on Deniers, Climate Security and More


The Rundown: Climatologist Michael Mann on Deniers, Climate Security and More
Roger McDonough 05/15/2014

Today on the program we’re joined by Dr. Michael Mann, a well known climatologist who helped pioneer methods to track global temperatures and climate change across centuries. Dr. Mann is also the author of the book The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. We’ll talk about climate deniers, climate conflicts, and the potential for america to lead in finding a solution. Plus your local headlines.


Podcast: Play in new window | Download (34.7MB)

Saturday, May 10, 2014

Climate Science and Policy through the Looking Glass - Michael Mann



Keynote - Michael Mann
Climate Science and Policy through the Looking Glass
UC Santa Cruz, February 28-March 1, 2014

Professor Michael Mann (Pennsylvania State University) was be the keynote speaker on Saturday. He is the author of more than 160 peer-reviewed and edited publications, and he has published two influential books: Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming; and The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. He is also a co-founder and regular contributor to the award-winning science website RealClimate.org

Current State of Climate Science Research: What Do We Know and What Else Do We Need to Find Out?




Panel One – Current State of Climate Science Research: What Do We Know and What Else Do We Need to Find Out? 9:00-10:30am
Climate Science and Policy through the Looking Glass
UC Santa Cruz, February 28-March 1, 2014

Moderator: Dean Paul Koch, Division of Physical & Biological Sciences

• Daniel Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

• Jeffrey Kiehl, Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research

• Benjamin D. Santer, Research Scientist, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis & Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

• Gavin A. Schmidt, NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Michael Mann - The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches From The Front Lines



Michael Mann -- The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches From The Front Lines
Published on Feb 11, 2014
"The Hockey Stick" has been a central figure in the controversy over human-caused ("anthropogenic") climate change. It is an easy-to-understand graph Michael E. Mann and his colleagues constructed to depict changes in Earth's temperature back to 1000 AD. The graph was featured in the high-profile "Summary for Policy Makers" of the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and it quickly became an icon in the debate over human-caused climate change. In his lecture, professor Mann tells the story behind the Hockey Stick, using it as a vehicle for exploring broader issues regarding the role of skepticism in science, the uneasy relationship between science and politics, and the dangers that arise when special economic interests and those who do their bidding attempt to skew the discourse over policy-relevant areas of science. In short, he attempts to use the Hockey Stick to cut through the fog of disinformation that has been generated by the campaign to deny the reality of climate change and reveal the very real threat to our future that lies behind it.

The lectures shared here were given on October 5th 2013 in the following order:

Guðni Elísson: "Earth101"
Stefan Rahmstorf: "The Climate Crisis"
Michael Mann: "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars"
Kari Norgaard: "Living in Denial: Climate Change, Emotions and Everyday Life"
Peter Sinclair: "Communicating Climate Science in the Disinformation Era"
Recorded by Phil Coates and edited by Ryan Chapman.

AGU Chapman Conference -- Climate Science: Michael Mann



AGU Chapman Conference -- Climate Science: Michael Mann
Published on Jun 28, 2013
AGU Chapman Conference on Communicating Climate Science: A Historic Look to the Future
08 June 2013 — 13 June 2013, Granby, CO, USA

Presenter: Michael Mann
Sunday, June 9, 2013, 10:25 a.m. - 10:45 a.m.
Session: Perspectives on Communication of the Climate Science II
Abstract Title: The Battle to Communicate Climate Change: Lessons from The Front Lines

I will discuss the continuing challenges and potential pitfalls climate scientists confront in efforts to communicate the science of climate change, its likely impacts, and solutions. Scientists, first of all, must contend with a well-funded and organized disinformation effort that aims to confuse the public about the nature of our scientific understanding and attack the science and the scientists themselves. In the face of these attacks, we must strive to communicate the science and its implications in plainspoken language that neither (a) insults the intelligence of our audience, (b) loses them in jargon and science-speak, nor (c) misrepresents the current state of our scientific understanding, including the uncertainties that remain. I will share insights that I have accumulated in my own communications and outreach efforts.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Michael Mann - A Look Into Our Climate: Past To Present To Future



Michael Mann - A Look Into Our Climate: Past To Present To Future
Uploaded on Dec 5, 2011
Michael Mann is a professor in the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, a climatologist, and the director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University. Michael is best known for his extensive background and research in the field of paleoclimatology. This work led to Michael's graph of temperature trends over the last thousand years, popularly coined as the "hockey stick graph" because of its resemblance to the sporting equipment. The graph has received acclaim and criticism since its publishing. He has received many awards and honors including, but not limited to, the Outstanding Scientific Paper Award by NOAA in 2002 and also was named one of the 50 Leading Visionaries in Science and Technology by Scientific American. Michael is also one of the founders of RealClimate.org, a highly acclaimed climate science website that was chosen in 2005 as one of the top 25 "Science and Technology" websites by Scientific American and as one of the top 15 "green" websites by Time Magazine in 2008. Michael's educational background includes an M.S. degree in Physics from Yale, and a Ph.D. in Geology & Geophysics from Yale.

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Michael Mann: The irreversible impacts from Climate Change



Michael Mann: The irreversible impacts from Climate Change

Mike Mann discusses his new piece in Scientific American, which outlines critical thresholds in climate warming in the not-too-far-off future, based on the sensitivity of Earth climate.

Scientific American: Most scientists concur that two degrees C of warming above the temperature during preindustrial time would harm all sectors of civilization—food, water, health, land, national security, energy and economic prosperity. ECS is a guide to when that will happen if we continue emitting CO2 at our business-as-usual pace.

I recently calculated hypothetical future temperatures by plugging different ECS values into a so-called energy balance model, which scientists use to investigate possible climate scenarios. The computer model determines how the average surface temperature responds to changing natural factors, such as volcanoes and the sun, and human factors—greenhouse gases, aerosol pollutants, and so on. (Although climate models have critics, they reflect our best ability to describe how the climate system works, based on physics, chemistry and biology. And they have a proved track record: for example, the actual warming in recent years was accurately predicted by the models decades ago.)


I then instructed the model to project forward under the assumption of business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions. I ran the model again and again, for ECS values ranging from the IPCC’s lower bound (1.5 degrees C) to its upper bound (4.5 degrees C). The curves for an ECS of 2.5 degrees and three degrees C fit the instrument readings most closely. The curves for a substantially lower (1.5 degrees C) and higher (4.5 degrees C) ECS did not fit the recent instrumental record at all, reinforcing the notion that they are not realistic.

To my wonder, I found that for an ECS of three degrees C, our planet would cross the dangerous warming threshold of two degrees C in 2036, only 22 years from now. When I considered the lower ECS value of 2.5 degrees C, the world would cross the threshold in 2046, just 10 years later [see graph on pages 78 and 79].

So even if we accept a lower ECS value, it hardly signals the end of global warming or even a pause. Instead it simply buys us a little bit of time—potentially valuable time—to prevent our planet from crossing the threshold.

Cautious Optimism

These findings have implications for what we all must do to prevent disaster. An ECS of three degrees C means that if we are to limit global warming to below two degrees C forever, we need to keep CO2 concentrations far below twice preindustrial levels, closer to 450 ppm. Ironically, if the world burns significantly less coal, that would lessen CO2 emissions but also reduce aerosols in the atmosphere that block the sun (such as sulfate particulates), so we would have to limit CO2 to below roughly 405 ppm.

We are well on our way to surpassing these limits. In 2013 atmospheric CO2 briefly reached 400 ppm for the first time in recorded history—and perhaps for the first time in millions of years, according to geologic evidence. To avoid breaching the 405-ppm threshold, fossil-fuel burning would essentially have to cease immediately. To avoid the 450-ppm threshold, global carbon emissions could rise only for a few more years and then would have to ramp down by several percent a year. That is a tall task. If the ECS is indeed 2.5 degrees C, it will make that goal a bit easier.

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Inside the Climate Wars: A Conversation with Michael Mann



LinkTV
Inside the Climate Wars: A Conversation with Michael Mann
(Episode 62) Debate over climate change remains polarized. Efforts to discredit the science of climate change by fossil fuel interests are a large part of the reason why says Michael Mann, Distinguished Professor ect>of Meteorology at Penn State University. "If there was a huge industry that would stand to profit greatly if the theory of gravity were wrong you would see the theory of gravity being contested in our US Senate," he tells Earth Focus correspondent Miles Benson in an exclusive interview. Mann on the politics of climate change and the impact it has had on both science and policy.

Friday, March 21, 2014