Showing posts with label Arctic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arctic. Show all posts
Friday, September 5, 2014
Monday, August 25, 2014
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 08 25 2014
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 08 25 2014.
The first large emission of methane came from the Beaufort Sea just North of Alaska. The Sea Surface temperature anomaly on the left in the Laptev Sea is concerning. Large amounts of methane hydrates are right below the brown area. The temperature anomaly continues to intensify. As you can see, the red in the Bering Strait is extending toward the East Siberian Sea, the Chukchi Sea and the Beaufort Sea. Large amounts of methane hydrates are found here as well. These areas are likely to become household words. - Harold H Hensel
Saturday, August 23, 2014
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Arctic sea ice influenced force of the Gulf Stream
These maps give an overview of the reconstructed changes in sea ice conditions in the Fram Strait and their consequences for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. 19,000 years before present permanent sea ice coverage had formed, which prevented any serious sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean (left). 1,400 years later this ice coverage brook up during an Heinrich Event 1 (center), starting a massive drift of sea ice and icebergs into the North Atlantic. Such an increased sea ice formation and discharge was also reconstructed for the period of the Younger Dryas, 12,800 years before present. The green shadings represent the extent of continental ice sheets; the points stand for sediment drilling sites. The sediment core used in this study was drilled at the site marked in yellow. Credit: Illustrations: Juliane Müller, Alfred-Wegener-Institute
Arctic sea ice influenced force of the Gulf Stream
Arctic sea ice influenced force of the Gulf Stream
August 21st, 2014
The force of the Gulf Stream was significantly influenced by the sea ice situation in the Fram Strait in the past 30,000 years. Scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) come to this conclusion in a new study that appears today in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. On the basis of biomarkers in deposits on the seafloor, the geologists involved managed for the first time to reconstruct when and how the marine region between Greenland and Svalbard was covered with ice in the past and in what way the Gulf Stream reacted when the sea ice cover suddenly broke up. They concluded that when large amounts of Arctic ice drifted through the Fram Strait to the North Atlantic, the heat transport of the Gulf Stream declined noticeably.
For AWI geologist Juliane Müller the Fram Strait is a key region in the global oceanic circulation. "On the east side of this passage between Greenland and Svalbard warm Atlantic water flows to the north into the Arctic Ocean while on the west side cold Arctic water masses and sea ice push their way out of the Arctic into the North Atlantic. A considerable portion of the Atlantic water cools here on its way to the north and sinks to deeper layers. The circulation of the water caused in this manner drives the global band of oceanic currents like a giant pump and influences, among other things, how much heat the Gulf Stream transports towards Europe," says the scientist.
If the pulse frequency of this circulation pump changes, this gives rise to direct changes in the climate – for instance, at the end of the past glacial period and during the transition to our present-day interglacial. "In the past 30,000 years the Gulf Stream has lost an extraordinary amount of force at least twice – once 17,600 years ago and about 12,800 years ago. Both times the climate in Europe consequently cooled down significantly – and now we also know why," says Juliane Müller.
She and her AWI colleague Ruediger Stein were the first scientists to succeed in reconstructing the sea ice conditions in the Fram Strait for this critical period at the end of the last glacial and thus in finding a direct connection between changes in sea ice cover and fluctuations in the Gulf Stream.
The force of the Gulf Stream was significantly influenced by the sea ice situation in the Fram Strait in the past 30,000 years. Scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) come to this conclusion in a new study that appears today in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. On the basis of biomarkers in deposits on the seafloor, the geologists involved managed for the first time to reconstruct when and how the marine region between Greenland and Svalbard was covered with ice in the past and in what way the Gulf Stream reacted when the sea ice cover suddenly broke up. They concluded that when large amounts of Arctic ice drifted through the Fram Strait to the North Atlantic, the heat transport of the Gulf Stream declined noticeably.
For AWI geologist Juliane Müller the Fram Strait is a key region in the global oceanic circulation. "On the east side of this passage between Greenland and Svalbard warm Atlantic water flows to the north into the Arctic Ocean while on the west side cold Arctic water masses and sea ice push their way out of the Arctic into the North Atlantic. A considerable portion of the Atlantic water cools here on its way to the north and sinks to deeper layers. The circulation of the water caused in this manner drives the global band of oceanic currents like a giant pump and influences, among other things, how much heat the Gulf Stream transports towards Europe," says the scientist.
If the pulse frequency of this circulation pump changes, this gives rise to direct changes in the climate – for instance, at the end of the past glacial period and during the transition to our present-day interglacial. "In the past 30,000 years the Gulf Stream has lost an extraordinary amount of force at least twice – once 17,600 years ago and about 12,800 years ago. Both times the climate in Europe consequently cooled down significantly – and now we also know why," says Juliane Müller.
She and her AWI colleague Ruediger Stein were the first scientists to succeed in reconstructing the sea ice conditions in the Fram Strait for this critical period at the end of the last glacial and thus in finding a direct connection between changes in sea ice cover and fluctuations in the Gulf Stream.
An arctic sea ice floe with a small melt pond on it. This photo was takes during a Polarstern expedition into the Fram Strait in the year 2012. Credit: Sebastian Menze, Alfred-Wegener-Institute
A nine metre long sediment core served as a window into the past for the geologists. It was drilled on a Fram Strait expedition conducted on the research vessel Maria. S. Merian and has such clearly defined layers that the scientists can read it like a book. "This core stems from the western continental slope of Svalbard, a region with an unusually high sedimentation rate. That means a very large number of sediment particles – the stores of climate information – trickle to the seafloor. This is the only explanation for the fact that we find the climate data from five to ten years over a length of one centimetre in this core while it could easily be as many as 1,000 years per centimetre of sediment sample in cores from low-particle regions. And, of course, 1,000 years are much too long a period to be able to clearly identify short-term climate fluctuations at all," explains Juliane Müller.
Two kinds of fossil molecules, also designated as biomarkers, served as indications of the existence and the duration of an ice cover for Juliane Müller. One kind is produced by diatoms living in the sea ice, the other by algae that prefer the open water. "The markers provide us with astonishing insights into the climate history of the Fram Strait. For instance, we now know that a thick ice cover did not form until after the actual high point of the last glacial period. However, it held for around 1,000 years and influenced the oceanic currents in the North Atlantic on a long-term basis," says Juliane Müller.
The reason for this is that the ice cover delayed the breakup of the large ice sheets that covered large sections of Europe and North America at that time. "The sea ice stabilised the glacier fronts of these ice sheets like a dam wall and prevented icebergs from calving. Export of freshwater from the Arctic to the North Atlantic, which otherwise would have been enormous, was thus checked for a certain time," explains the geologist.
When the ice cover then broke up within an extremely short time 17,600 years ago, tremendous ice masses poured into the North Atlantic. There they melted and released large volumes of freshwater. "This sudden freshening of the North Atlantic altered the density structure of the water and led to significant weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation, or to put it more simply, to weakening of the Gulf Stream," says Juliane Müller.
According to the study, a similar chain reaction occurred yet another time during the Younger Dryas around 12,800 years ago when enormous amounts of sea ice again left the Arctic moving towards the North Atlantic and heat transport via the Gulf Stream declined. "The results of our study show how important Arctic sea ice is for the global oceanic circulation and that sudden changes in the sea ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is directly connected with abrupt climate fluctuations," says the AWI scientist.
She will now provide the newly obtained data to AWI's climate modellers. "With the help of these specific data we can check how reliably our models depict the sea ice situation of the past 30,000 years. In this way the data from the past help us to improve our models and consequently enable us to make more precise statements on the future of the Gulf Stream," states Juliane Müller.
More information: Juliane Müller / Ruediger Stein: High-resolution record of late glacial and deglacial sea ice changes in Fram Strait corroborates ice-ocean interaction during abrupt climate shifts, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2014.07.016
Provided by Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
"Arctic sea ice influenced force of the Gulf Stream." August 21st, 2014. http://phys.org/news/2014-08-arctic-sea-ice-gulf-stream.html
A nine metre long sediment core served as a window into the past for the geologists. It was drilled on a Fram Strait expedition conducted on the research vessel Maria. S. Merian and has such clearly defined layers that the scientists can read it like a book. "This core stems from the western continental slope of Svalbard, a region with an unusually high sedimentation rate. That means a very large number of sediment particles – the stores of climate information – trickle to the seafloor. This is the only explanation for the fact that we find the climate data from five to ten years over a length of one centimetre in this core while it could easily be as many as 1,000 years per centimetre of sediment sample in cores from low-particle regions. And, of course, 1,000 years are much too long a period to be able to clearly identify short-term climate fluctuations at all," explains Juliane Müller.
Two kinds of fossil molecules, also designated as biomarkers, served as indications of the existence and the duration of an ice cover for Juliane Müller. One kind is produced by diatoms living in the sea ice, the other by algae that prefer the open water. "The markers provide us with astonishing insights into the climate history of the Fram Strait. For instance, we now know that a thick ice cover did not form until after the actual high point of the last glacial period. However, it held for around 1,000 years and influenced the oceanic currents in the North Atlantic on a long-term basis," says Juliane Müller.
The reason for this is that the ice cover delayed the breakup of the large ice sheets that covered large sections of Europe and North America at that time. "The sea ice stabilised the glacier fronts of these ice sheets like a dam wall and prevented icebergs from calving. Export of freshwater from the Arctic to the North Atlantic, which otherwise would have been enormous, was thus checked for a certain time," explains the geologist.
When the ice cover then broke up within an extremely short time 17,600 years ago, tremendous ice masses poured into the North Atlantic. There they melted and released large volumes of freshwater. "This sudden freshening of the North Atlantic altered the density structure of the water and led to significant weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation, or to put it more simply, to weakening of the Gulf Stream," says Juliane Müller.
According to the study, a similar chain reaction occurred yet another time during the Younger Dryas around 12,800 years ago when enormous amounts of sea ice again left the Arctic moving towards the North Atlantic and heat transport via the Gulf Stream declined. "The results of our study show how important Arctic sea ice is for the global oceanic circulation and that sudden changes in the sea ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is directly connected with abrupt climate fluctuations," says the AWI scientist.
She will now provide the newly obtained data to AWI's climate modellers. "With the help of these specific data we can check how reliably our models depict the sea ice situation of the past 30,000 years. In this way the data from the past help us to improve our models and consequently enable us to make more precise statements on the future of the Gulf Stream," states Juliane Müller.
More information: Juliane Müller / Ruediger Stein: High-resolution record of late glacial and deglacial sea ice changes in Fram Strait corroborates ice-ocean interaction during abrupt climate shifts, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2014.07.016
Provided by Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
"Arctic sea ice influenced force of the Gulf Stream." August 21st, 2014. http://phys.org/news/2014-08-arctic-sea-ice-gulf-stream.html
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Deep Cold: Interior and Northern Alaska Weather & Climate: June-July Anomalies
Deep Cold: Interior and Northern Alaska Weather & Climate: June-July Anomalies: Here's a graphical representation of the temperature and precipitation anomalies in the June-July period for 17 first order observing st...
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
AGU FM11 - Small climate changes, big ecological impacts
Uploaded on Dec 8, 2011
Press Conference from 2011 AGU Fall Meeting - Thu. 10 a.m. PST
Boreal forests, arctic tundra and other ecosystems can change very quickly -- even if the factor causing the change, such as a warming climate, is itself developing gradually. A slow rise in temperature can cause a complete "regime shift," making the ecosystem suddenly inhospitable for different plant and wildlife species. The potential for regime shifts looms in Alaska's boreal forest, according to new research. One tree species could die off -- and be replaced by grassland, instead of different warmth-tolerant tree species. Wildfires could spark regime shifts as well. Another new study finds that a regime shift 14,000 years ago wiped out one of the largest ecosystems ever, leading to the demise of megafauna like mammoth and wooly rhinoceros.
Boreal forests, arctic tundra and other ecosystems can change very quickly -- even if the factor causing the change, such as a warming climate, is itself developing gradually. A slow rise in temperature can cause a complete "regime shift," making the ecosystem suddenly inhospitable for different plant and wildlife species. The potential for regime shifts looms in Alaska's boreal forest, according to new research. One tree species could die off -- and be replaced by grassland, instead of different warmth-tolerant tree species. Wildfires could spark regime shifts as well. Another new study finds that a regime shift 14,000 years ago wiped out one of the largest ecosystems ever, leading to the demise of megafauna like mammoth and wooly rhinoceros.
Monday, June 30, 2014
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Tuesday, June 3, 2014
Melting Arctic Opens New Passages for Invasive Species
Scientists Say Early Action Could Protect Coasts
May 28, 2014 newsdesk.si.edu
For the first time in roughly 2 million years, melting Arctic sea ice is connecting the north Pacific and north Atlantic oceans. The newly opened passages leave both coasts and Arctic waters vulnerable to a large wave of invasive species, biologists from the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center assert in a commentary published May 28 in Nature Climate Change.
Two new shipping routes have opened in the Arctic: the Northwest Passage through Canada, and the Northern Sea Route, a 3000-mile stretch along the coasts of Russia and Norway connecting the Barents and Bering seas. While new opportunities for tapping Arctic natural resources and interoceanic trade are high, commercial ships often inadvertently carry invasive species. Organisms from previous ports can cling to the undersides of their hulls or be pumped in the enormous tanks of ballast water inside their hulls. Now that climate change has given ships a new, shorter way to cross between oceans, the risks of new invasions are escalating.
“Trans-Arctic shipping is a game changer that will play out on a global scale,” said lead author Whitman Miller. “The economic draw of the Arctic is enormous. Whether it’s greater access to the region’s rich natural resource reserves or cheaper and faster inter-ocean commercial trade, Arctic shipping will reshape world markets. If unchecked, these activities will vastly alter the exchange of invasive species, especially across the Arctic, north Atlantic and north Pacific oceans.”
The first commercial voyage through the Northwest Passage—a carrier from British Columbia loaded with coal bound for Finland—occurred in September 2013. Meanwhile, traffic through the Northern Sea Route has been rising rapidly since 2009. The scientists project that at the current rate, it could continue to rise 20 percent every year for the next quarter century, and this does not take into account ships sailing to the Arctic itself.
For the past 100-plus years, shipping between oceans passed through the Panama or Suez Canals. Both contain warm, tropical water, likely to kill or severely weaken potential invaders from colder regions. In the Panama Canal, species on the hulls of ships also had to cope with a sharp change in salinity, from marine to completely fresh water. The Arctic passages contain only cold, marine water. As long as species are able to endure cold temperatures, their odds of surviving an Arctic voyage are good. That, combined with the shorter length of the voyages, means many more species are likely to remain alive throughout the journey.
Though the routes pose major risks to the north Atlantic and north Pacific coasts, the Arctic is also becoming an attractive destination. Tourism is growing, and it contains vast stores of natural resources. The Arctic holds an estimated 13 percent of the world’s untapped oil and 30 percent of its natural gas. Greenland’s supply of rare earth metals is estimated to be able to fill 20 to 25 percent of global demand for the near future. Until now the Arctic has been largely isolated from intensive shipping, shoreline development and human-induced invasions, but the scientists said that is likely to change drastically in the decades to come.
“The good news is that the Arctic ecosystem is still relatively intact and has had low exposure to invasions until now,” said coauthor Greg Ruiz. “This novel corridor is only just opening. Now is the time to advance effective management options that prevent a boom in invasions and minimize their ecological, economic and health impacts.”
A link to the abstract will be available here after publication. For a full copy of the paper, images or to speak with the authors, contact Kristen Minogue at minoguek@si.edu or 443-482-2325.
Friday, May 30, 2014
Weathergirl goes rogue
Weathergirl goes rogue
Published on Sep 3, 2012
Arctic ice cover just reached its lowest point in recorded history. Pippa goes off script and drops some science. For more, check outhttp://www.deeprogueram.tumblr.com
Or Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Deep-Ro...
Or Twitter: https://twitter.com/deeprogueram
Filmed at Strut Studios in Vancouver: http://www.strutstudios.com/
Starring Pippa Mackie and Kai Nagata. Written by Heather Libby.
Labels:
Arctic,
ice,
sea level rise,
temperature,
video
Thursday, May 29, 2014
Melting Polar Ice Caps A "Ticking Timebomb" For Earth's Climate System
Melting Polar Ice Caps A "Ticking Timebomb" For Earth's Climate System
TheRealNews Published on May 28, 2014
Journalist Dahr Jamail & Professor Peter Wadhams say the resulting release of methane will lead to massive climate disruption, and that we have reached a point of no return
Friday, May 16, 2014
Extreme weather events are rocketing upwards
Extreme weather events are rocketing upwards
- Paul Beckwith/John Malloy thecanadiandaily.ca
Extreme weather events are rocketing upwards in their frequency of occurrence, intensity, and duration and are impacting new regions that are unprepared. These events, such as torrential rains, are causing floods and damaging crops and infrastructure like roads, rail, pipelines, and buildings. Cities, states, and entire countries are being battered and inundated resulting in disruption to many peoples lives as well as enormous economic losses. As bad as this is, it is going to get much worse by at least 10 to 20 times. Why?
Greenhouse gas emissions from humans have changed the chemistry of the atmosphere. The optical absorption of infrared heat has increased in the atmosphere which raises temperature, and thus water vapour content, and therefore fuels more intense storms. The jet streams that guide these storms are slower and wavier and more fractured and cause our weather gyrations and weird behavior. Areas far north can get very warm, while areas far south can get very cold. Some areas get persistent drought. Then, the pattern can flip.
Extreme weather events are rocketing upwards in their frequency of occurrence, intensity, and duration and are impacting new regions that are unprepared. These events, such as torrential rains, are causing floods and damaging crops and infrastructure like roads, rail, pipelines, and buildings. Cities, states, and entire countries are being battered and inundated resulting in disruption to many peoples lives as well as enormous economic losses. As bad as this is, it is going to get much worse by at least 10 to 20 times. Why?
Greenhouse gas emissions from humans have changed the chemistry of the atmosphere. The optical absorption of infrared heat has increased in the atmosphere which raises temperature, and thus water vapour content, and therefore fuels more intense storms. The jet streams that guide these storms are slower and wavier and more fractured and cause our weather gyrations and weird behavior. Areas far north can get very warm, while areas far south can get very cold. Some areas get persistent drought. Then, the pattern can flip.
The jet streams are much wavier in the north-south direction since the Arctic temperatures have warmed 5 to 8 times faster than the global average. This reduces the temperature difference between the Arctic and equator and basic physics forces the jets to slow and get wavier. Why is the Arctic warming greatly amplified? The region is darkening and thus absorbing more sunlight, since the land-based snow cover in spring and the Arctic sea ice cover volume are both declining exponentially. The white snow and ice is being replaced by dark surfaces like the ocean and the tundra. The most detailed computer model on sea ice decline is a U.S. Naval Graduate School model, and it shows the sea ice cover could be gone by late summer in 2016. If this happens, the Arctic warming will rocket upwards, the jets will distort much more, and the extreme weather events will rocket upwards in frequency, amplitude, and duration and civilization will be hammered.
Paul Beckwith is part-time professor with the laboratory for paleoclimatology and climatology, department of geography, University of Ottawa. Paul teaches climatology/meteorology and does PhD research on ‘Abrupt climate change in the past and present’.
Paul Beckwith is part-time professor with the laboratory for paleoclimatology and climatology, department of geography, University of Ottawa. Paul teaches climatology/meteorology and does PhD research on ‘Abrupt climate change in the past and present’.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Southern Hemisphere Climate Changes
Published on Jan 27, 2014
I explain how declining Arctic sea ice is causing Australia to bake and Antarctic sea ice to grow. Animations used are Southern Hemisphere temperature anomalies, temperatures, jet steams, sea surface temperature and precipitation.
Saturday, May 10, 2014
Saturday, May 3, 2014
Arctic Methane Emissions ‘Certain to Trigger Warming’
By Bobby Magill Follow @bobbymagill As climate change melts Arctic permafrost and releases large amounts of methane into the atmosphere, it is creating a feedback loop that is "certain to trigger additional warming," according to the lead scientist…
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Abrupt Climate Change In The Arctic (And Beyond)
Abrupt Climate Change In The Arctic (And Beyond) An Update
Published on Dec 21, 2013
AGU Fall Meeting 2013
Our understanding of future Arctic change is informed by the history of past changes, which often have been both large and abrupt. The well-known ice-age events such as the Younger Dryas show how sea-ice changes can amplify forcing to produce very large responses, with wintertime sea ice especially important. These changes are increasingly seen to have played a central role in the ice-age cycling through their global impact on CO2 storage in the deep ocean.
The Heinrich events reveal processes of ice-sheet/ocean interaction, some of which are being played out in Greenland and Antarctica now, and which may have large future effects on sea-level rise. The paleoclimatic record plus physical understanding greatly reduce the worst worries about instabilities from methane stored in cold places, but tend to support a role in amplifying future warming.
Overall, the very large impacts of past Arctic changes, and the likelihood that future changes under business-as-usual fossil-fuel emissions will be unprecedented in combined size and speed, raise important questions.
Labels:
abrupt climate change,
Arctic,
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ice,
video
Sunday, April 27, 2014
The melting Arctic, and revolutions to come
Robert & Jack Hunziker, 26th April 2014
The world is facing the imminent threat of severe climate disruption from the warming Arctic, write Robert & Jack Hunziker, leading to a global crisis. But the response of the powerful is only to increase fossil fuel exploitation - and damn the consequences.
Imagine the backlash in the country if food shortages hit America because of the failure of the government to set policies to convert fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
The 'warming of the Arctic' could become one of the greatest catastrophes in human history, even exceeding the notoriety of Adolf Hitler and Genghis Khan.
Likely, it will impact more people than the combined effect of those brutal leaders. In fact, global warming may eventually be categorized as the greatest threat of all time, even greater than the Black Death's 75-to-200 million dead, circa 1350.
The integrity of Arctic sea ice is essential to prevent the risks of (1) methane outbreak and / or (2) fierce, damaging weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere.
Arctic sea ice continues its decline
According to the NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO), "Average ice extent for March 2014 was the fifth lowest for the month in the satellite record. Through 2014, the linear rate of decline for March ice extent is 2.6% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average."
Extreme weather events, as a consequence of the warming Arctic, will likely wreak havoc over the entire Northern Hemisphere, causing severe droughts, freezing cold spells, and widespread flooding. Some early evidence of this is already at hand.
These combinations of extreme weather events have the potential to rival the damage of the great mythical floods. Already, Eastern Europe had a taste of extreme climate change in 2013 when a once-in-500-year flood hit hard, wiping out vast swathes of cropland.
In the future, when shortages of food and water become more commonplace because of extreme climactic change, it is probable that desperate groups of roughnecks will battle for food and water, similar to the dystopia depicted in Mad Max (Warner Bros. 1979) the story of a breakdown of society where bandit tribes battle over the last remaining droplets of petroleum.
Over time, climate change is setting the stage for worldwide wars over food and water.
Origin of food & water wars
Research conducted by Jennifer Francis, PhD, Rutgers University - Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, shows that Arctic sea ice loss, with its consequent warming, impacts upper-level atmospheric circulation, radically distorting jet streams above 30,000 feet, which adversely affects weather patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere
(Source: Jennifer A. Francis and Stephen J. Vavrus, Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, L06801, 17 March 2012.)
"Gradual warming of the globe may not be noticed by most, but everyone - either directly or indirectly - will be affected to some degree by changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events as green-house gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere." (Ibid.)
Scientists are already cognizant of how badly a warming Arctic impacts subsistence, for example, according to the Arctic Methane Emergency Group:
"The weather extremes ... are causing real problems for farmers ... World food production can be expected to decline, with mass starvation inevitable. The price of food will rise inexorably, producing global unrest and making food security even more of an issue." (Source: Arctic Methane Emergency Group).
The Syrian connection
"The nexus between climate change, human migration, and instability constitutes ... a transcendent challenge", wrote Michael Werz and Max Hofman in 'Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict, The Arab Spring and Climate Change' (Climate and Security Correlations Series, Feb. 2013).
"The conjunction of these undercurrents was most recently visible during the Arab Spring, where food availability, increasing food prices, drought, and poor access to water, as well as urbanization and international migration contributed to the pressures that underpinned the political upheaval."
As for example, Syria suffered from devastating droughts in the decade leading up to its rebellion as the country's total water resources cut in half between 2002 and 2008. As a result, the drier winters hit Syria, which, at the time, was the top wheat-growing region of the eastern Mediterranean, thereby exacerbating its crisis.
In 2009 the UN and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies reported that more than 800,000 Syrians lost their entire means of livelihood because of drought. (Robert F. Worth, Earth is Parched Where Syrian Farms Thrived, New York Times, Oct. 13, 2010.)
The phenomenon is global
In the recent past, ferocious weather conditions have struck all across the planet, for example:
- a once every 500-year flood in Eastern Europe,
- a once in 50-year drought in the US Midwest,
- the worst drought in 200 years in China, affecting more people than the entire population of North America;
- the worst flooding in Pakistan in 100 years (a continuous deluge lasting for over a month);
- the most costly flash flood damage in Canada's modern history;
- Syria's drought has been classified as the worst in the history of the Fertile Crescent;
- Brazil is experiencing it's worst drought in decades.
The reason behind the weather dilemma has everything to do with global warming in the Arctic, which is warming 2-3 times faster than elsewhere on the planet.
In turn, the Arctic, which serves as the thermostat for the entire Northern Hemisphere, is disrupting the jet streams, which, as a result, influences weather patterns throughout the hemisphere.
This is causing droughts and torrential storms to become "embedded or stalled" for long duration, e.g., Colorado's torrential downpour and massive flooding in 2013, which was as fierce as superabundant coastal tropical storms but not at all like mid-latitude, middle America storms.
History repeats
Once food and water shortages become widespread as a result of a more extreme and unpredictable climate behavior, it is highly probable that people all across the planet will become so disgusted and distraught that they'll be looking for blood.
In that regard, history shows that, during such times, desperation overrides prudence. Therefore, hiding behind security gates and armed troops won't make a difference, similar to the late 18th century French Revolution when masses of citizens used pitchforks, stones, and sticks to overwhelm the king's formidable armed forces.
At the time, France was one of the mightiest forces in the world, but like toy soldiers, its army fell at the hands of its own citizens. In the end, civilizations cannot, and have not, survived the forces of desperation born of starvation.
In the case of Paris, two years of poor grain harvests because of bad weather conditions set the stage for revolution. On June 21, 1791 the king, queen, and their attendants fled their Paris residences, whisked away in carriages, as masses of enraged, starving protestors swarmed the city streets.
The forewarnings had been there years beforehand. On August 20, 1986 Finance Minister Calonne informed King Louis XVI that the royal finances were insolvent (because of costly foreign wars - like the US today).
Hard times hit - also similar to US today. Six months later the First Assembly of Notables met, resisting imposition of taxes and fiscal reforms - similar to the US right wing today.
It was nearly three years later April 27th, 1789 when the Reveillon Riot in Paris, caused by low wages (like US wages today, Wal-Mart, McDonalds) and food shortages (not in US yet), led to 25 deaths by troops.
A week without food, and civilization is over
Thereafter, the public's anger grew to a fever pitch. On July the 14th rioters stormed the most notorious jail for political prisoners in all of France, the Bastille. By July 17th the 'Great Fear' had begun to taken command of the streets as the peasantry revolted against their socio-economic system.
One of their prime targets was Queen Marie Antoinette, the Dauphin of the world's most powerful monarchy, whose last spoken words were delivered to Henri Sanson, her executioner, as she accidentally stepped on his foot upon climbing the steps of the scaffold: "Monsieur, I ask your pardon. I did not do it on purpose", before losing her head in front of tens of thousands of cheering Parisians, screaming "Vive la Nation!"
Flash forward in time into the future, and imagine the backlash in the country if food shortages hit America because of the failure of the government to set policies to convert fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
As such, the US could have led the entire world to conversion to renewable sources of energy. As things stand, it is a 'missed opportunity'.
In stark contrast to America's reluctance, Scotland's energy sources are already 40% renewables and will be 100% by 2020.
Food prices and revolution
According to a landmark study, "Food insecurity is both cause and a consequence of political violence." (Henk-Jan Brinkman and Cullen S. Hendrix, Food Insecurity and Conflict, The World Development Report 2011.)
The link between high grain prices and riots is well established. For example, according toThe Economist magazine (December 2007), when high grain prices sparked riots in 48 countries, the magazine's food-price index was at its highest point since originating in 1845.
As for a more current situation, the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 brought political and economic issues to the forefront, but behind the scenes, climate stress played a big role.
According to Marco Lagif of the New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) in Technology Review, MIT, August 2011, the single factor that triggers riots around the world is the price of food.
The evidence comes from data gathered by the United Nations that plots the price of food against time, the so-called Food Price Index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN.
On December 13, 2011, four days before Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in Tunisia, sparking the Arab Spring riots, NECSI contacted the US government, warning that global food prices were about to cross the tipping point when almost anything can trigger riots.
Accordingly, the NECSI study was presented, by invitation, at the World Economic Forum in Davos and was featured as one of the top ten discoveries in science in 2011 by Wired magazine.
The Arab Spring - an artefact of hunger
"Definitely, it is one of the causes of the Arab Spring", says Shenggen Fan, director-general of the International Food Policy Research Institute. As well, it is increasingly clear that the climate models that predicted the countries surrounding the Mediterranean would start to dry out are correct.
(Source: "Human-Caused Climate Change Already a Major Factor in more Frequent Mediterranean Droughts," National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, October 27, 2011.)
As for Syria, it is a prime example of the drama of changing climatic conditions and the consequences. The country's farmlands north and east of the Euphrates River constitute the breadbasket of the Middle East. Unfortunately, up to 60% of Syria's land experienced one of the worst droughts on record from 2006-11.
In Syria's northeast and the south, nearly 75% suffered total crop failure. Herders in the northeast lost 85% of their livestock. According to the UN, 800,000 Syrians had their livelihoods totally wiped out, moving to the cities to find work or to refugee camps, similar to what happened in Paris in the late 18th century.
Furthermore, the drought pushed three million Syrians into extreme poverty. According to Abeer Etefa of the World Food Program, "Food inflation in Syria remains the main issue for citizens" - eerily similar to what occurred in France in the late 18th century just prior to it's revolution.
The French Revolution redux, in America?
As countries like the United States hastily continue their pursuit of policies dedicated to 'energy independence' by fracking, using extreme pressure to force toxic chemicals underground to suck up every last remnant of oil and gas, the warming of the Arctic is elevated, and the jet streams become more distorted, resulting in extremely harsh, deadly and unpredictable weather systems, pummeling the entire Northern Hemisphere.
Eventually, the outcome leads to shortages of food, and like a flashback of 18th century France, people starve or fight.
Post Script: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana (1863-1952), Spanish / American philosopher, essayist, poet, and novelist.
Saturday, April 26, 2014
BBC Earth The Power Of The Planet - Ice
BBC Earth The Power Of The Planet - Ice
Uploaded on Sep 18, 2011
Monday, April 7, 2014
Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space
Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space
Wiley Research News 04.07.14
Summer minimum in 2012 and a plot of yearly minimum from 1979 to 2012. There was a slight recovery in 2013 but the minimum during 2013 is still one of the 7 lowest value.
“The Arctic region has been warming faster than anywhere else in the globe from 1981 to 2012. Such warming is manifested strongly in all components of the cryosphere in the Northern Hemisphere.” - J. Comiso and D. Hall, authors of WIRES paper "Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space"
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